Quick Answer
As of late May 2026, Donald Trump's national approval rating averages roughly 38 to 40 percent across the major polling aggregators, against a disapproval rating of about 58 to 59 percent. The Real Clear Politics average sits at 39.8 percent approve and 58.3 percent disapprove. The Silver Bulletin and Decision Desk HQ aggregates both land near 38.9 percent approve.
That is down from a 47 percent approval baseline at the start of his second term in January 2025, making the current numbers the lowest of his second presidency so far. The slide is being driven primarily by frustration over the cost of living, fatigue around Middle East foreign policy, and a sharp shift among independent voters.
The Current Data: National Polling Aggregates
Trump began his second presidential term with a 47 percent approval baseline, which was historically the second lowest opening for an incoming US president on record, almost identical to his first term opener. Over the following 16 months, that baseline has steadily eroded.
Here is where the major aggregators sit right now.
- Real Clear Politics. 39.8 percent approve, 58.3 percent disapprove.
- Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver). 38.9 percent approve, 58.1 percent disapprove.
- Decision Desk HQ. 38.9 percent approve, 58.6 percent disapprove.
- National consensus average. Roughly 38.3 percent approve, 58.8 percent disapprove.
The high profile New York Times and Siena College tracking poll, which historically runs slightly cooler than the aggregators, has Trump at 37 percent approval, the lowest single poll reading of his second term.
What Is Driving the Decline
A granular look at the cross tabs shows the decline is not a single story. It is the compound effect of three reinforcing pressures.
1. Economic Frustration and the Cost of Living
The economy has historically been the bedrock of Trump's political support, yet roughly 64 percent of US voters currently disapprove of his economic management. Persistent frustration over grocery prices, housing costs, and everyday inflation continues to weigh on consumer confidence.
The effect is sharpest among independent and lower income voters. Even within Trump's own base, a slim but growing share now says they feel personally worse off financially than they did a year ago. That kind of self reported financial pain is one of the most reliable predictors of presidential approval movement.
2. Middle East Foreign Policy Fatigue
The administration's foreign policy approach has sparked widespread debate, particularly around the ongoing US Israel military posture toward Iran. A solid majority of voters express growing fatigue over Middle East escalation, and the share who say they trust the president to manage the conflict has dropped meaningfully since the start of the year.
Foreign policy is usually a secondary driver of approval, but in 2026 it is meaningfully dragging the topline number down.
3. The Independent Voter Shift
Independent voters are the single most important demographic to track. Within recent surveys, roughly 47 percent of independents say the administration's policies have personally hurt them, a notable jump from the early 2025 baseline.
That is the group that delivered Trump his 2024 victory margin in the swing states, and they are the group whose drift will define the 2026 midterms and any 2028 succession battle inside the Republican Party.
How These Numbers Compare to Historical Baselines
A president sitting in the high thirties at this stage of a term is not unprecedented, but it is unusually weak.
- Trump's first term. Averaged about 40 percent approval through 2018, with a low of 35 percent.
- Joe Biden's first term. Sat in the low forties through most of 2022 and 2023, with a similar floor.
- Barack Obama's second term. Hovered in the mid forties at this stage in 2014, before recovering into the fifties by 2016.
- George W. Bush's second term. Was in the low forties in 2006 before falling into the high twenties by late 2008.
The closest historical parallel is the Bush second term trajectory: an incumbent re elected with a narrow popular mandate, faced with a stalled foreign policy and a faltering economy, watching approval bleed steadily through the midterm year.
What the Numbers Mean for the Midterms
A president sitting at 38 to 40 percent approval six months before a midterm election almost always loses seats in Congress. The historical pattern is consistent across both parties going back to World War II.
That said, the data does not translate into an easy or automatic win for the opposition. National surveys show only 26 percent of voters expressing genuine satisfaction with the Democratic Party, and roughly 44 percent of registered Democrats voice clear frustration with their own party's direction.
This is the unusual situation where both major parties are underwater with the broader electorate at the same time. The result is a highly volatile political landscape where small shifts in candidate quality, fundraising, and turnout machinery can swing individual races by margins much larger than the national mood would predict.
What Could Move the Number
Three things historically pull a second term approval rating back up: a cooling cost of living, a clear foreign policy win, and a clean break with an unpopular controversy.
If grocery and energy prices ease through the summer, the economic share of the disapproval number can shrink quickly. A diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, particularly any progress on a Saudi Arabia Israel normalization within the Abraham Accords framework, could rebuild some of the foreign policy trust. And the absence of any new high profile scandal through the fall would let the focus drift back to policy outcomes.
None of those are guaranteed, but each is plausible. Approval ratings at this depth are responsive to events in a way that early term numbers usually are not.
The Takeaway
Trump's approval rating in late May 2026 averages roughly 38 to 40 percent, the weakest of his second term. The drop is being driven by cost of living frustration, Middle East fatigue, and a sharp shift among independent voters. With the midterms six months away and the opposition party equally unpopular, the political landscape is unusually volatile, and small policy or geopolitical wins could move the number meaningfully in either direction over the summer.
