Quick Answer
On May 10, 2026, sunspot AR4436 fired off an M5.8 solar flare and launched a Coronal Mass Ejection mostly aimed east of Earth.
NOAA expects the CME to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 13, possibly triggering a G1 minor geomagnetic storm.
That is no real threat to power grids, but it could push the aurora borealis far enough south to be seen across upper northern latitudes.
The Mother's Day M5.8 Solar Flare
Space weather is acting up again. On Mother's Day afternoon at around 13:19 UTC, the highly active sunspot region AR4436 erupted, firing off an M5.8 class solar flare.
Solar flares are classified by letter, with M class flares considered moderate, just below the most extreme X class.
Despite being moderate, this blast was strong enough to trigger an R2 (moderate) radio blackout, briefly disrupting high frequency radio communications across parts of eastern Africa.
The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Tracking
The flash of light from the flare was not the only thing the sun threw our way. The eruption also launched a fast moving cloud of solar plasma and magnetic field known as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
- The trajectory: The bulk of the explosive material was aimed well to the east of Earth.
- The impact: Even though we avoided a direct hit, scientists suggest Earth's magnetic field might still receive a glancing blow from the outer edge of the CME.
When Will the CME Arrive?
The CME is expected to brush past Earth's magnetic field on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.
If the glancing blow makes contact, it could trigger a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. A G1 poses virtually no threat to power grids or terrestrial electronics, which is great news for skywatchers.
The interaction between solar particles and our atmosphere could push the aurora borealis far enough south to be visible from the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is an M class solar flare?
An M class flare is a moderate sized explosion of electromagnetic radiation from the sun's surface. They can cause brief radio blackouts at Earth's poles and minor radiation storms.
Will the May 2026 solar flare affect my cell phone or internet?
No. The flare caused a temporary high frequency radio blackout for aviators and mariners on the sunlit side of Earth, but standard consumer cell phones and terrestrial internet networks are unaffected.
When is the best time to see the aurora from the solar flare?
If the CME connects with Earth's magnetic field as predicted, the best chances to view auroras will be during the dark, early morning hours of May 13 and May 14 in higher latitude regions.
The takeaway
This is the type of space weather event that is fun to watch and not scary. A glancing blow from a moderate CME is mostly a sky show, not a grid emergency.
I think if you are anywhere in the northern US, Canada, the UK, or northern Europe, it is worth checking the aurora forecast on the night of May 13. These windows tend to be short, and clear skies make all the difference.
What a Coronal Mass Ejection Actually Is
A coronal mass ejection is a billion-tonne burst of magnetised plasma flung off the surface of the Sun. When that cloud reaches Earth, it slams into our magnetic field and can squeeze it hard enough to push aurora towards the equator and induce currents in long conductors like power lines and pipelines.
A solar flare is the bright burst of radiation that often accompanies a CME. The flare hits us in minutes. The CME, being slower, takes one to three days depending on its speed.
What the May 2026 Forecast Looks Like
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G3 geomagnetic storm watch after a long-duration M-class flare erupted on the Earth-facing side of the Sun. The CME is expected to arrive in the back half of the week, with the strongest impact most likely in a six-hour window straddling the arrival.
A G3 storm is meaningful but not extreme. Past G3 events have produced aurora visible as far south as the Mid-Atlantic states in the US and central France in Europe.
What Will Actually Happen on Earth
- Aurora: visible across northern latitudes and pushing into mid latitudes during the peak.
- GPS: minor to moderate accuracy degradation, particularly for precision agriculture and survey work.
- HF radio: blackouts on the sunlit side during the strongest hours.
- Power grid: operators run mitigations as a precaution. Widespread outages are unlikely at this storm level.
- Satellites: increased drag on low-Earth-orbit satellites, with a small risk of single-event upsets.
How to See the Aurora If You Are Lucky
Get away from city lights. Face north. Give your eyes 15 minutes to adapt. Phone cameras with night mode often pick up colour before the naked eye does, so use them as your scout.
The best viewing window is usually the three hours either side of local midnight, when your part of the planet is rotated into the geomagnetic tail. Apps like SpaceWeatherLive and Glendale App push push notifications when the Kp index spikes.
Should You Worry About Power and Comms
Not at a G3 level. Grid operators have detailed playbooks for storms in this range. Aviation routes that cross the poles will see HF radio disruption and may divert. Most consumers will notice nothing beyond, perhaps, a flaky GPS lock.
A truly damaging event would be a G5, comparable to the 1859 Carrington Event. That is not what this storm is, although the activity does remind us that solar maximum brings these events with increasing frequency.
What I Would Do This Week
Charge a power bank. Note where the nearest dark-sky spot is. Set a Kp alert on your phone for any value above 6. If you fly long-haul this week, expect minor route adjustments. Then go outside after midnight and look north. With a bit of luck you will see the Sun's weather painted across our sky.
