Quick Answer
Yes, El Nino is on track to return in 2026. The latest May updates from the World Meteorological Organization and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the odds of full El Nino conditions emerging between May and July at around 61%, with the event likely persisting through the end of the year.
Whether it becomes a Super El Nino is a different question. Spring forecasts are notoriously unreliable, but several models hint at a strong, possibly extreme, event.
The short answer
Yes, El Nino is on track to return in 2026. The latest May updates from the World Meteorological Organization and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the odds of full El Nino conditions emerging between May and July at around 61%, with the event likely persisting through the end of the year.
Whether it becomes a Super El Nino is a different question. Spring forecasts are notoriously unreliable, but several models hint at a strong, possibly extreme, event.
The bigger concern in 2026 is not the event itself. It is the fact that any major El Nino now lands on top of a planet that is already hotter than at any point during the last comparable Super El Nino in 1877.
What is El Nino, in plain English?
El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern centred on the equatorial Pacific. When it activates, sea surface temperatures across a huge stretch of the Pacific rise above average.
That extra ocean heat changes wind patterns, shifts where rain falls, and nudges the global average temperature upward. La Nina is the cool phase, and a neutral state sits between them. Right now, in May 2026, the system is officially neutral but warming fast.
What the 2026 forecast actually says
Reading between the official briefings, three things stand out.
- The transition is underway. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are climbing rapidly after a brief neutral spell at the start of the year.
- The probability is real, not speculative. A 61% chance of El Nino emerging between May and July is a clear lean, not a coin flip.
- The intensity is uncertain. Forecasters are running into the so called spring predictability barrier, the well known reason why ENSO forecasts made in March, April, and May are less reliable than those made later in the year.
By July, the picture should sharpen considerably.
Why scientists keep mentioning 1877
When climatologists talk about a Super El Nino, they usually point to four reference events: 1982, 1997, 2015, and the worst of all, 1877.
The 1877 to 1878 El Nino unfolded long before fossil fuel emissions had any meaningful influence on the climate. It was driven purely by a massive spike in Pacific sea surface temperatures, paired with a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The result was one of the most destructive climate events in modern history.
- Global famine. Severe multi year droughts ravaged northern China, southeast Asia, India, and parts of Africa. The resulting harvest failures are estimated to have killed around 20 million people.
- The Grande Seca. Northeast Brazil suffered a crippling drought, often called the Great Drought, that wiped out agriculture and killed hundreds of thousands.
- Catastrophic flooding. While Asia and Brazil burned, southern Ecuador, northern Peru, and central Chile were drowned by relentless rain and severe coastal flooding.
1877 is the proof that even without modern climate change, a powerful El Nino has the natural capacity to upend agriculture, economies, and human life on a global scale.
Why 2026 could be different, and worse
The mechanics of El Nino itself have not changed since 1877. The thing that has changed is the baseline temperature of the planet underneath it.
That is the core climatologist concern about 2026. El Nino's natural warming pulse is now stacking on top of a long term, human driven warming trend.
- A compound crisis. Background warming from fossil fuel emissions plus an El Nino spike adds up to more total heat than either factor alone.
- Record breaking potential. The WMO has flagged that the combination could push 2026 to the warmest or second warmest year on record.
- Supercharged extremes. A warmer ocean and atmosphere hold more energy and more moisture. The usual El Nino effects, drought in Australia and Indonesia, heavier rain across the southern United States, get amplified into more severe heatwaves, larger wildfires, and bigger floods.
What to expect for the rest of 2026
If a strong El Nino does lock in by mid summer, the second half of the year is likely to bring distinctive shifts in global weather.
- A quieter Atlantic hurricane season. El Nino tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses hurricane formation.
- A more active eastern Pacific. The same conditions tend to fuel stronger cyclones in the central and eastern Pacific.
- Altered North American winter. Expect a generally warmer winter across the northern United States and Canada, with wetter, cooler conditions across the southern tier of the United States.
- Higher wildfire risk in dry zones. Southeast Asia, parts of China, and Australia are the regions to watch most closely.
- Pressure on staple crop yields. Wheat, rice, and palm oil regions sit squarely in El Nino's drought corridor, which can ripple into global food prices.
What individuals and policymakers can do now
The unique advantage we have over 1877 is that we can see this coming. Forecasters can flag a developing El Nino months in advance, which gives governments, farmers, water utilities, and emergency planners time to act.
- Agricultural ministries can prioritise drought tolerant seed varieties and adjust planting calendars.
- Water utilities can tighten reservoir management ahead of expected dry spells.
- Disaster agencies in flood prone Pacific coastal areas can pre position equipment and update evacuation plans.
- Households can revisit basic preparedness, particularly in wildfire and flood corridors.
The takeaway
A 2026 Super El Nino is not yet a certainty, but the direction of travel is clear and the lessons of 1877 are sobering. The same natural pattern that helped trigger one of the deadliest climate disasters in modern history is now warming up again, on a planet that is already running hotter than ever. The window between knowing this is coming and feeling the worst of it is short. The smart move is to use it.
